Daily Kos has uncovered a bit of perspective. In late October 2000, the CNN tracking poll had the race Bush 52%, Gore 39% and Nader 4%. Not let me try to remember how that race turned out.

And pollster John Zogby on the Post’s discussion forum today.

I don’t have a crystal ball I just have a hunch based on my numbers. And I still think that an incumbent president polling 48 or under nationally and in key states in trouble. The burden is still on John Kerry to persuade the undecideds but if history is any judge undecideds break against the incumbent.

Zogby’s tracking poll: Kerry & Bush at 47%.